Megafires in Europe: Climate makes fire conditions 20 times more likely in Spain, study finds

Herz — Climate Desk · 31 July 2026 at 08:04 · 30s summary · 4 min read

What we know

The World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international scientific network founded in 2014 to quantify the role of climate warming in extreme weather events, published on July 31, 2026 a study on wildfires affecting Europe. According to this research, reported by The Guardian, warming has made the hot, dry, windy conditions conducive to fires at least 20 times more probable in Spain and at least twice as probable in France.

Since early July 2026, severe wildfires have been burning in Spain and France. They have killed people, destroyed thousands of homes, and forced over 300,000 to flee their homes.

Large wildfires have also broken out in the UK and Greece. In Greece, three firefighters lost their lives.

How the risk was measured

To establish these figures, WWA used the Daily Severity Rating (DSR), an index measuring the potential severity of a wildfire if it were to ignite, by integrating meteorological parameters such as wind, humidity, and temperature. Researchers selected the seven-day period showing the highest DSR values for each country. They then compared today's world—at 1.4°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial era—to a scenario without human influence on the climate.

The climate whiplash effect

Fires were exacerbated by what researchers call the climate whiplash effect: an abnormally wet winter and spring stimulated vegetation growth, which then rapidly dried out under a hot, dry summer. This abundant and dried biomass provided abnormally high fuel for the fires. Climate warming amplifies this mechanism by making European winters wetter and summers hotter and drier.

Smoke as a large-scale health hazard

Dr. Augustin Colette of France's Institut national de l'environnement industriel et des risques (INERIS) documented particulate pollution peaks reaching 20 times the acceptable air quality threshold. Very poor air quality was felt up to 400 km away from fire sources.

Globally, approximately 1.5 million people have their lives shortened each year by wildfire smoke.

Context: a summer marked by two climate disasters

An earlier WWA study had established that the late June 2026 heat wave—estimated at about 20,000 deaths across Europe—could not have occurred without the additional heat trapped by human carbon pollution. The July megafires thus represent a second climate attribution signal for summer 2026.

Timeline

1. Late June 2026
   European heat wave: approximately 20,000 deaths estimated. A WWA study establishes that the event could not have occurred without warming linked to human emissions.