Ebola in DRC: WHO estimates outbreak is 2–4 times larger than official count

Timeline

1. Mid-May 2026
   Official declaration of Ebola outbreak in Ituri, a province in northeastern DRC bordering South Sudan and Uganda.
2. June–early July 2026
   Spread to North Kivu, South Kivu, Tshopo, and Haut-Uélé; emergence of 20 cases in Uganda.
3. July 2026 (before the 14th)
   Escalation of response efforts: 14 operational laboratories (compared to 1 at the start), 700 treatment beds deployed, two therapeutic trials launched, contact tracing reaching approximately 80%.
4. July 14, 2026
   WHO alerts to underestimation of the real toll, estimated two to four times higher than the 1,926 official cases and 702 official deaths.

Health response

More than 90% of cases remain concentrated in Ituri. Contact tracing coverage is approaching 80%, 700 treatment beds have been deployed, and laboratory facilities have increased from 1 to 14 since the start of the epidemic.

Two treatments are currently undergoing field trials. The INRB (National Institute of Biomedical Research in DRC, modeled on the Pasteur Institutes), ANRS MIE (Emerging Infectious Diseases, an autonomous agency of France's Inserm dedicated to epidemic research), and the NGO Alima are expected to announce an additional clinical trial shortly.

This trial will test post-exposure prophylaxis — a preventive treatment administered after potential exposure to an infectious agent to prevent disease establishment — using the antiviral obeldesivir in close contacts of confirmed cases.

Context

WHO ranks this outbreak as the third most severe Ebola epidemic in history and as the fastest spreading in terms of progression within a single month among all known Ebola outbreaks.

Ituri, a province in northeastern DRC created in 2015, shares borders with Uganda and South Sudan. Its cross-border position has facilitated spread of the virus beyond Congolese territory.

What remains uncertain

The exact number of undetected cases remains unknown by definition. WHO itself acknowledges that detection evolves from day to day, making any tally provisional.

The precise details of the post-exposure prophylaxis clinical trial using obeldesivir have not yet been published; official announcement from the organizers is expected soon.